下面是小编为大家整理的美国硬装零售：Lasser对2020年12月美国人口普查局零售数据分析,供大家参考。
Global Research 14 February 2019
U.S Hardline Retail Lasser"s Look at December 2018 U.S. Census Bureau Retail Sales
Overall retail sales (unadjusted) increased 1.4% YoY in Dec. (vs. 4.9% in Nov) The 2-yr stacked rate for retail sales was 5.0% in Dec, a sequential deceleration of -640 bps. Adj sales grew 2.3% YoY vs. 4.1% in Nov, w. the 2-year stack decelerating -220 bps. Most Hardline & Broadline categories experienced modest growth rates or slight declines. This data is consistent with the commentary from several retailers who noted that trends slowed between Black Friday & Christmas. We think these results should serve to lower expectations moving to the heart of retail earnings season. Home Improvement & CE grew, but Home Furnishings declined Home Improvement sales (NAICS 442) increased 1.7% YoY in Dec vs. a 1.5% increase in Nov. The 2-yr was up 7.5% (vs. 10.8% in Nov). Adjusted was up 1.4% (a -20 bp deceleration). Home Furnishings sales decreased -1.8% in Dec (vs. up 2.0% in Nov). The 2-yr stack increased 4.3%, a -720 bp sequential deceleration. CE sales increased 0.3% (vs. 0.1% in Nov). The 2-yr stack was up 0.9% in Dec (vs. 5.5% in Nov). Gen Merch, F&B stores were up; Auto Parts declined Gen Merch (452) was up 0.6% in Dec vs. a 4.3% increase in Nov, while the 2-yr was up 5.3% (vs. 8.7% in Nov). Adj. was up 2.2% (vs. 3.7% in Nov). Food & Beverage stores increased 0.7% (vs. 3.2% in Nov). The 2-yr stack was up 4.4%, a -260 bp deceleration. Auto Parts decreased -0.9% in Dec (vs. up 2.5% in Nov). The 2-yr stack was down -5.6% vs. up 5.0% in Nov. Adj. declined -0.9% vs. a 2.4% increase in Nov. Sporting goods declined in Dec, Beauty & Office Supp. increased in November Sporting Goods, Book & Music decreased -16.3% in December vs. a -9.5% decline in November. Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies, & Perfume (1-mo lag) increased 7.7% in November compared to a 5.7% gain in October. The 2-yr stack was up 7.4% (vs. 5.7% in October). OS sales (1-mo lag) were up 9.7% in November (vs. 11.3% in Oct.).
Figure 1: Snapshot of U.S. Census Bureau Retail Sales
Michael Lasser Analyst michael.lasser@ubs.com
+1-212-713 2440 Michael Goldsmith
Analyst michael.goldsmith@ubs.com
+1-212-713 2951 Atul Maheswari, CFA
Associate Analyst
atul.maheswari@ubs.com
+1-212-713 4103 Mark Carden
Analyst mark.carden@ubs.com
+1-212-713 3218
Unadjusted Jan-18 Feb-18 M ar-18 Apr-18 M ay-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18
Se p-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 De c-18
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
www.ubs.com/investmentresearch
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 18. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Retail Americas Equities Retail and food services sales, total
444,738
437,520
511,626
483,951
531,011
511,348
508,776
524,577
481,862
506,963
524,525
569,523
Yr./Yr. Change
5.1%
4.1%
5.6%
3.6%
7.0%
5.8%
6.7%
6.6%
2.3%
6.1%
4.9%
1.4%
2-Yr Stacked
10.2%
5.1%
10.5%
6.8%
12.3%
9.5%
9.6%
10.6%
7.0%
11.2%
11.4%
5.0%
Retail sales exl. motor vehicle and parts
355,463
346,573
400,119
382,729
419,735
404,367
402,894
413,995
383,755
405,661
426,923
465,088
Yr./Yr. Change
5.0%
4.6%
5.7%
3.7%
7.6%
6.5%
7.8%
7.1%
3.6%
6.9%
5.6%
1.1%
Furniture and home f urnishings stores
9,016
8,816
10,353
9,527
10,286
10,103
10,113
10,615
9,925
10,120
11,135
11,425
Yr./Yr. Change
8.0%
5.8%
5.7%
7.3%
5.4%
4.0%
5.5%
3.6%
0.5%
2.7%
2.0%
-1.8%
2-Yr Stacked
10.2%
5.4%
11.8%
10.2%
14.3%
11.1%
10.6%
11.3%
4.6%
11.8%
11.5%
4.3%
% Total Retail Sales
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
YoY bps change
5
3
0
7
(3)
(3)
(2)
(6)
(4)
(7)
(6)
(7)
Electronics and appliance stores
7,632
7,288
7,899
7,090
7,645
7,821
7,702
8,212
7,609
7,649
10,212
12,092
Yr./Yr. Change
3.8%
3.0%
1.0%
1.4%
2.1%
3.4%
4.1%
4.9%
-0.3%
2.0%
0.1%
0.3%
2-Yr Stacked
2.3%
-5.2%
0.8%
1.8%
2.4%
2.6%
0.7%
1.3%
-1.3%
3.5%
5.5%
0.9%
% Total Retail Sales
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.9%
2.1%
YoY bps change
(2)
(2)
(7)
(3)
(7)
(4)
(4)
(3)
(4)
(6)
(9)
(2)
Building mat., garden equip. and supplies dealers
25,391
25,351
31,962
34,377
40,766
36,585
34,501
34,127
31,135
34,490
32,064
29,400
Yr./Yr. Change
6.4%
5.1%
1.6%
2.1%
5.9%
1.2%
6.1%
4.0%
-0.8%
7.1%
1.5%
1.7%
2-Yr Stacked
15.0%
9.3%
6.9%
6.2%
17.1%
6.9%
13.8%
13.1%
7.3%
18.8%
10.8%
7.5%
% Total Retail Sales
5.7%
5.8%
6.2%
7.1%
7.7%
7.2%
6.8%
6.5%
6.5%
6.8%
6.1%
5.2%
YoY bps change
7
5
(24)
(11)
(8)
(33)
(4)
(17)
(20)
6
(21)
1
Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores
5,813
5,501
6,804
6,159
6,517
6,552
6,133
7,154
5,927
5,881
6,972
9,019
Yr./Yr. Change
-8.9%
-3.1%
0.8%
-2.4%
0.1%
-1.6%
-4.8%
-5.2%
-10.8%
-6.2%
-9.5%
-16.3%
2-Yr Stacked
-12.1%
-8.7%
-3.9%
-8.0%
-5.2%
-11.2%
-13.9%
-11.0%
-14.9%
-9.1%
-10.1%
-24.0%
% Total Retail Sales
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.3%
1.2%
1.4%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.6%
YoY bps change
(20)
(9)
(6)
(8)
(8)
(10)
(15)
(17)
(18)
(15)
(21)
(34)
General merchandise stores
50,715
51,414
59,736
54,532
59,796
58,658
57,907
60,638
55,628
58,439
66,626
80,217
Yr./Yr. Change
2.5%
2.4%
7.7%
-1.8%
5.8%
3.9%
2.9%
4.8%
2.0%
3.3%
4.3%
0.6%
2-Yr Stacked
3.1%
0.5%
7.1%
2.0%
6.2%
6.5%
4.7%
8.6%
8.0%
6.1%
8.7%
5.3%
% Total Retail Sales
11.4%
11.8%
11.7%
11.3%
11.3%
11.5%
11.4%
11.6%
11.5%
11.5%
12.7%
14.1%
YoY bps change
(29)
(20)
23
(62)
(12)
(21)
(42)
(20)
(4)
(32)
(8)
(11)
Lasser’s Look at U.S. Census Retail Sales Figure 2: Hardline subsector retail sales - unadjusted ($ mm’s) Unadjusted Jan-18
Feb-18
M ar -18
Apr-18
M ay-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Se p-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
De c-18
Retail and food services sales, total 444,738
437,520
511,626
483,951
531,011
511,348
508,776
524,577
481,862
506,963
524,525
569,523
Yr./Yr. Change 5.1%
4.1%
5.6%
3.6%
7.0%
5.8%
6.7%
6.6%
2.3%
6.1%
4.9%
1.4%
2-Yr Stacked 10.2%
5.1%
10.5%
6.8%
12.3%
9.5%
9.6%
10.6%
7.0%
11.2%
11.4%
5.0%
Retail sales exl. motor
vehicle and parts 355,463
346,573
400,119
382,729
419,735
404,367
402,894
413,995
383,755
405,661
426,923
465,088
Yr./Yr. Change 5.0%
4.6%
5.7%
3.7%
7.6%
6.5%
7.8%
7.1%
3.6%
6.9%
5.6%
1.1%
Furniture and home f urnishings stores 9,016
8,816
10,353
9,527
10,286
10,103
10,113
10,615
9,925
10,120
11,135
11,425
Yr./Yr. Change 8.0%
5.8%
5.7%
7.3%
5.4%
4.0%
5.5%
3.6%
0.5%
2.7%
2.0%
-1.8%
2-Yr Stacked 10.2%
5.4%
11.8%
10.2%
14.3%
11.1%
10.6%
11.3%
4.6%
11.8%
11.5%
4.3%
% Total Retail Sales 2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
YoY bps change 5
3
0
7
(3)
(3)
(2)
(6)
(4)
(7)
(6)
(7)
Electronics and appliance stores 7,632
7,288
7,899
7,090
7,645
7,821
7,702
8,212
7,609
7,649
10,212
12,092
Yr./Yr. Change 3.8%
3.0%
1.0%
1.4%
2.1%
3.4%
4.1%
4.9%
-0.3%
2.0%
0.1%
0.3%
2-Yr Stacked 2.3%
-5.2%
0.8%
1.8%
2.4%
2.6%
0.7%
1.3%
-1.3%
3.5%
5.5%
0.9%
% Total Retail Sales 1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.9%
2.1%
YoY bps change (2)
(2)
(7)
(3)
(7)
(4)
(4)
(3)
(4)
(6)
(9)
(2)
Building mat., garden equip. and supplies dealers 25,391
25,351
31,962
34,377
40,766
36,585
34,501
34,127
31,135
34,490
32,064
29,400
Yr./Yr. Change 6.4%
5.1%
1.6%
2.1%
5.9%
1.2%
6.1%
4.0%
-0.8%
7.1%
1.5%
1.7%
2-Yr Stacked 15.0%
9.3%
6.9%
6.2%
17.1%
6.9%
13.8%
13.1%
7.3%
18.8%
10.8%
7.5%
% Total Retail Sales 5.7%
5.8%
6.2%
7.1%
7.7%
7.2%
6.8%
6.5%
6.5%
6.8%
6.1%
5.2%
YoY bps change 7
5
(24)
(11)
(8)
(33)
(4)
(17)
(20)
6
(21)
1
Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores 5,813
5,501
6,804
6,159
6,517
6,552
6,133
7,154
5,927
5,881
6,972
9,019
Yr./Yr. Change -8.9%
-3.1%
0.8%
-2.4%
0.1%
-1.6%
-4.8%
-5.2%
-10.8%
-6.2%
-9.5%
-16.3%
2-Yr Stacked -12.1%
-8.7%
-3.9%
-8.0%
-5.2%
-11.2%
-13.9%
-11.0%
-14.9%
-9.1%
-10.1%
-24.0%
% Total Retail Sales 1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.3%
1.2%
1.4%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.6%
YoY bps change (20)
(9)
(6)
(8)
(8)
(10)
(15)
(17)
(18)
(15)
(21)
(34)
General merchandise stores 50,715
51,414
59,736
54,532
59,796
58,658
57,907
60,638
55,628
58,439
66,626
80,217
Yr./Yr. Change 2.5%
2.4%
7.7%
-1.8%
5.8%
3.9%
2.9%
4.8%
2.0%
3.3%
4.3%
0.6%
2-Yr Stacked 3.1%
0.5%
7.1%
2.0%
6.2%
6.5%
4.7%
8.6%
8.0%
6.1%
8.7%
5.3%
% Total Retail Sales 11.4%
11.8%
11.7%
11.3%
11.3%
11.5%
11.4%
11.6%
11.5%
11.5%
12.7%
14.1%
YoY bps change (29)
(20)
23
(62)
(12)
(21)
(42)
(20)
(4)
(32)
(8)
(11)
Food and beverage stores 59,562
55,807
63,179
58,982
63,951
62,154
62,797
63,045
60,568
61,986
63,064
67,422
Yr./Yr. Change 4.0%
3.6%
6.2%
0.5%
4.6%
4.3%
3.6%
4.4%
2.2%
3.7%
3.2%
0.7%
2-Yr Stacked 4.5%
3.0%
8.5%
4.6%
7.6%
6.0%
4.8%
7.4%
5.5%
5.8%
7.0%
4.4%
% Total Retail Sales 13.4%
12.8%
12.3%
12.2%
12.0%
12.2%
12.3%
12.0%
12.6%
12.2%
12.0%
11.8%
YoY bps change (14)
(6)
7
(38)
(27)
(17)
(36)
(25)
(1)
(29)
(21)
(9)
Automotive parts, acc., and tire stores 6,925
6,720
7,938
7,421
8,013
7,825
7,852
8,174
7,453
8,151
7,621
7,027
Yr./Yr. Change 2.1%
0.4%
-1.4%
0.1%
2.2%
-0.2%
3.4%
2.9%
-0.7%
6.9%
2.5%
-0.9%
2-Yr Stacked 2.1%
-6.1%
-0.9%
-1.2%
5.1%
-1.9%
3.8%
2.1%
-0.5%
7.5%
5.0%
-5.6%
% Total Retail Sales 1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
1.5%
1.2%
YoY bps change (5)
(6)
(11)
(5)
(7)
(9)
(5)
(6)
(5)
1
(4)
(3)
Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perf ume Stores 4,19...
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